Pakistan - Musharraf and the US

Well, not too big of a surprise that General/President of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf declared an emergency situation in Pakistan that suspended the constitution. This entry does not advocate that Musharraf is a good guy, by any means, but an objective look at the situation says that this was not all that bad for Pakistanis considering the other available options out there.

The United States has been demanding that Musharraf start taking out Taliban/al-Qaeda forces along the Paki-Afghan border for quite some time now. Why is that a problem for Musharraf? Because if he does that then he loses the support of the vast majority of the military, who are either ethnically related to the people they would be killing or supportive of what the Taliban/al-Qaeda are doing. It's no surprise then that Musharraf's life has been in jeopardy many times since 9-11. No head of state has had as many attempts at his life in the past six years as Mr. Musharraf. It's not something he is likely proud of despite making light of it when interviewed by John Stewart on the Daily Show. As things stand right now, the military, which has run the country since its birth, does not seem to look at Musharraf too highly. He is not in the mold of General Zia ul-Haq, who was, besides a religiously fanatical dictator, a religiouslly minded individual. Musharraf is secular, but understands why he is in power and thus caters to the interests of his constituents (who are not the Pakistani people) by tolerating religious leaders he would otherwise have jailed with the lawyers who have protested against his rule.


The Bhutto Factor

Benazir Bhutto is a hell of a lot worse of an option than Musharraf. Any sane minded Pakistani knows that much. She will do Washington's bidding at all costs even if it destroys the country she would be in charge of. Musharraf, while definitely pandering to the US as much as he can in order to gain Bush, Dick, and Condi's love and affection, is not stupid enough to go after the Taliban in the NWFP. Why? Because if he were to do so then Pakistan will end up looking a lot like Iraq does now. This is the opinion of many experts on this issue. This is probably why the Bush administration has been largely quiet on this issue (imagine if Iran were to do such a thing?) knowing full well that Musharraf has been pinned into a corner and has reacted to the situation like any dictator would - by acting like a dictator.

Bhutto has been talking a lot of smack about taking care of business in regards to the Taliban. The Lal Masjid incident of a few months back would likely be the result of such a mission by Butto, but on a much larger and grander scale likely consuming most of the large cities of Pakistan. Pakistan has become a safe haven for terrorists. There is no doubt about it. Caution must be taken in regards to who is in control of the country. Musharraf, while a dictator making sure than the military runs the show, is the more sane choice regarding who controls Pakistan - and its nuclear weapons. Bhutto escaped an assassination attempt on her life the first time she came back to Pakistan. She would likely not be as successful as Musharraf in avoiding assassination attempts on a regular basis.

Prognosis?

Military rule seems to be the forecast for quite some time. The military (along with the ISI) will not be relinquishing power any time soon, but their grip on power is tenuous if they do not continue to follow through with Washington's plan for the NWFP. But the condition the US finds itself in does not seem to favor a short term for the Pakistani military and Musharraf. The US is stuck in both Iraq and Afghanistan - those are big reasons the US has not done anything in regards to Iran. Adding Pakistan to the list of countries up for regime change seems unlikely. In the end, General Musharraf can rest assured he will be in power for quite some time unless he somehow irritates his constituents.